Poll to Poll

Just a matter of days after the starting gun was fired for a general election in Canada on 28 th April, Australia’s Prime Minister, Anthony Albanese, confirmed this week that Australians will also go to the polls on 3 rd May. Against this backdrop, new polling indicates that the Australian Labor Party may now be within touching distance of securing a second term in government, despite trailing in the polls just last month. YouGov’s second MRP model for the election suggests that Labor is now on course to secure between 69 and 80 seats in the 150 seat House of Representatives. The Liberal/National coalition is forecast to take 55-68 seats, the Greens 1-3, and Independents 7-12. The central projection, which YouGov describes as “the most likely result”, would put Labor on 75 seats, just one short of an outright majority. The Coalition would be on 60, Independents on 11, Greens on 2, Katter’s Australia Party on 1 and the Centre Alliance on 1. Paul Smith, Director of Public Data...

 The Chancellor, Rachel Reeves, will this week deliver her spring forecast against a backdrop of difficult public finances to say the least, anemic growth at best and concerns about the prospect of more spending cuts by government departments. Against this background, polling by Opinium demonstrates the challenge the Chancellor now faces. In respect of approval ratings, 53% of those questioned disapprove of the job Reeves is doing, with just 16% approving, giving her a net approval rating of -37 which, Opinium notes, makes her “by some margin the least popular cabinet minister tested.” Looking ahead to the next 12 months, 57% said they felt the economy will get worse, with 41% believing their own personal finances will get worse. When it comes to key metrics, Labour leads the Conservatives by 9% when it comes to who the public thinks is best positioned to improve public services, whilst Labour has a 4% lead when it comes to which party is likely to spend government money m...

At the start of January, the then Leader of the Canadian Liberal Party and Prime Minister, Justin Trudeau, announced his decision to stand down.  He did so amidst polls putting his party on an almost certain course to be defeated at the general election needing to be held this year. According to the CBC News poll of poll on the day that Trudeau confirmed his decision to step down on 6 th January,   the Conservatives, led by Pierre Poilievre, led the Liberals by a margin of 24 percentage points. What we have witnessed over the past couple of weeks is nothing short of a political miracle. Against a backdrop of Donald Trump imposing tariffs on goods from Canada and his threat to turn the country into the 51 st state of the USA, the new Liberal Leader and now Prime Minister, Mark Carney, has transformed his party’s fortunes. He has done so by positioning himself and his party as the force best positioned stand up for Canada and its interests against an increasingly bellige...

In the week of Valentines Day, neither Labour, nor the Conservatives, seem to be at the receiving end of voter’s love.   First of all, YouGov this week published polling putting Reform UK on 26% of the vote, its highest score to date. This puts the party just in front of Labour on 25% with the Conservatives on 21%. The detailed tables suggest that 23% of those who voted Conservative at the General Election last year are backing Reform, with 10% of those who voted Labour backing Nigel Farage’s party. Meanwhile, Ipsos Mori has published data suggesting that 48% of Britons feel Keir Stramer is doing a bad job as Prime Minister, with just 23% having a positive opinion of his premiership.   Ipsos also notes that: “Nearly half (48%) of Britons think the Labour government is doing badly at running the country, a figure comparable to ratings of Boris Johnson's government.” The bad news doesn’t stop there for Labour. 56% of those questioned say they are disappointed at the...

Keir Starmer and the Labour Party would be forgiven for feeling slightly lonely.  Not only do they face four years of Donald Trump in the White House, as they look to Germany, Canada and Australia they see the prospect of parties of the centre-left being swept from office. First of all, there’s Germany, which goes to the polls on 23 rd February. YouGov’s first mega MRP poll ahead of the election puts the centre-right CDU/CSU on course to be the single largest party in the Germany Parliament, the Bundestag. Its central estimate, based on the poll is that the CDU/CSU are on course to take 222 out of 630 seats in the Parliament, based on 30% of the vote, up from 24% in the last elections in 2021.   As it notes: “This would likely mean that CDU leader Friedrich Merz will be the next chancellor of Germany.” YouGov goes on to note: “The far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) are also expected to make gains, with the 146 seats and 20% of the vote projected by the YouGov mo...

 Opinium has published its latest poll for The Observer. When it comes to headline voting intentions, whilst 29% of those questioned said they would vote Labour, Reform come second with 24% of those polled saying they would vote for Nigel Farage’s party.  23% opted for the Conservatives, with 10% going for the Liberal Democrats. When it comes to approval ratings for key political leaders, Keir Starmer has a net rating of -33, compared to the Conservative Leader, Kemi Badenoch on -13 and Nigel Farage on -9. The Liberal Democrat Leader, Ed Davey, has a net satisfaction rating of +2. Meanwhile the Chancellor, Rachel Reeves, has a net approval rating of -30 with 49% of those polled being dissatisfied with the way she is doing her job, and just 19% approving. Asked who they felt would make the best Prime Minister, 26% said Keir Starmer compared to 16% opting for Kemi Badenoch. 42% said neither of them. Questioned about the degree to which they approved or not of the way va...

As the political world looks forward to 2025 new polling will be making for sobering reading for Labour, albeit it over four years away from the next election. First of all, More in Common has published its first mega MRP poll since the General Election. When it comes to vote share, the poll finds that if there were an election today, the parties would secure the following, with changes compared to the results of the General Election in brackets: Labour: 25% (down from 33.7%) Conservatives: 26% (up from 23.7%) Reform UK: 21% (up from 14.29%) Liberal Democrats: 14% (up from 12.22%) Green Party: 8% (up from 6.4%) The above would point to the parties securing the following number of seats in the House of Commons: Labour: 228 (-183) Conservatives: 222 (+101) Reform UK: 72 (+ 67) Liberal Democrats: 58 (-14) SNP: 37 (+28) I ndependent: 8 (+3) Plaid Cymru: 4 (-) Green: 2 (-2) Digging deeper, More in Common suggest that such findings would see 271 seats won wit...