Poll to Poll

With advance polling having started in Canada’s general election, formally taking place in a week’s time, and following a week in which leaders of the main political parties held their only debates, the Liberal Party led by Mark Carney continues to do well in the polls. According to CBC’s poll of polls , the Liberals are now on 43.3% of the vote with the Conservatives, led by Pierre Poilievre, on 38.4%. The central forecast is for the Liberals to have an outright majority of 195 seats in the Canadian House of Commons with the Conservatives on 122. The Liberals now have an 84% chance of returning to power with an outright majority, and a 15% probability of being the single largest party in a hung parliament. The Conservatives, according to the polls, have just 1% chance of being the biggest single party. In Australia meanwhile, the incumbent Labor Party will be increasingly confident of winning the general election there in just a couple of weeks’ time. According to the latest...

With Canadian’s due to vote in their general election in just two weeks’ time, the polling continues to point to the Liberal Party, led by Mark Carney, being on course to win.  According to CBC’s poll of polls the Liberals now stand on 44.3% of the vote, compared with the Conservatives, led by Pierre Poilievre, on 37.5%. Based on the data, the analysis suggests that the central forecast in terms of number of seats in the Canadian House of Commons is now 198 for the Liberals, clearly past the 172 seats needed for an outright majority.   This would be up from the 160 the party won under Justin Trudeau at the last election in 2021. The central forecast for the Conservatives is for 121 seats, just two more than the party won in 2021. The CBC data suggests that there is now an 87% chance of the Liberals winning a majority, a 12% chance of them being the biggest party in a hung parliament and just 1% chance of the Conservatives being the single largest party in the House of C...

At the end of the second week of campaigning in Canada’s general election, the Liberals under the leadership of Mark Carney, are seeing their poll lead over the Conservatives increase.  According to CBC’s poll of polls the Liberals are averaging 44.2% in the polls, seven points ahead of the Conservatives led by Pierre Poilievre on 37.3%. CBC’s analysis suggests that the Liberals “could win 200 seats or more for the first time in its history on current polling numbers.” This, remember is a party which, at the start of the year, under the leadership of Justin Trudeau, was odds on favourite to be ejected from office after a decade in power. CBC’s analysis suggests that, based on its figures, there is now a 96% probability of the Liberals winning a majority in the Canadian House of Commons, with a 3% chance of it having the most seats in a hung Parliament. It suggests that there is just a 1% chance of the Conservatives winning the most seats in a hung Parliament. Meanwhile, dow...

Just a matter of days after the starting gun was fired for a general election in Canada on 28 th April, Australia’s Prime Minister, Anthony Albanese, confirmed this week that Australians will also go to the polls on 3 rd May. Against this backdrop, new polling indicates that the Australian Labor Party may now be within touching distance of securing a second term in government, despite trailing in the polls just last month. YouGov’s second MRP model for the election suggests that Labor is now on course to secure between 69 and 80 seats in the 150 seat House of Representatives. The Liberal/National coalition is forecast to take 55-68 seats, the Greens 1-3, and Independents 7-12. The central projection, which YouGov describes as “the most likely result”, would put Labor on 75 seats, just one short of an outright majority. The Coalition would be on 60, Independents on 11, Greens on 2, Katter’s Australia Party on 1 and the Centre Alliance on 1. Paul Smith, Director of Public Data...

 The Chancellor, Rachel Reeves, will this week deliver her spring forecast against a backdrop of difficult public finances to say the least, anemic growth at best and concerns about the prospect of more spending cuts by government departments. Against this background, polling by Opinium demonstrates the challenge the Chancellor now faces. In respect of approval ratings, 53% of those questioned disapprove of the job Reeves is doing, with just 16% approving, giving her a net approval rating of -37 which, Opinium notes, makes her “by some margin the least popular cabinet minister tested.” Looking ahead to the next 12 months, 57% said they felt the economy will get worse, with 41% believing their own personal finances will get worse. When it comes to key metrics, Labour leads the Conservatives by 9% when it comes to who the public thinks is best positioned to improve public services, whilst Labour has a 4% lead when it comes to which party is likely to spend government money m...

At the start of January, the then Leader of the Canadian Liberal Party and Prime Minister, Justin Trudeau, announced his decision to stand down.  He did so amidst polls putting his party on an almost certain course to be defeated at the general election needing to be held this year. According to the CBC News poll of poll on the day that Trudeau confirmed his decision to step down on 6 th January,   the Conservatives, led by Pierre Poilievre, led the Liberals by a margin of 24 percentage points. What we have witnessed over the past couple of weeks is nothing short of a political miracle. Against a backdrop of Donald Trump imposing tariffs on goods from Canada and his threat to turn the country into the 51 st state of the USA, the new Liberal Leader and now Prime Minister, Mark Carney, has transformed his party’s fortunes. He has done so by positioning himself and his party as the force best positioned stand up for Canada and its interests against an increasingly bellige...

In the week of Valentines Day, neither Labour, nor the Conservatives, seem to be at the receiving end of voter’s love.   First of all, YouGov this week published polling putting Reform UK on 26% of the vote, its highest score to date. This puts the party just in front of Labour on 25% with the Conservatives on 21%. The detailed tables suggest that 23% of those who voted Conservative at the General Election last year are backing Reform, with 10% of those who voted Labour backing Nigel Farage’s party. Meanwhile, Ipsos Mori has published data suggesting that 48% of Britons feel Keir Stramer is doing a bad job as Prime Minister, with just 23% having a positive opinion of his premiership.   Ipsos also notes that: “Nearly half (48%) of Britons think the Labour government is doing badly at running the country, a figure comparable to ratings of Boris Johnson's government.” The bad news doesn’t stop there for Labour. 56% of those questioned say they are disappointed at the...