Poll to Poll

With Reform UK doing so well in the polls, in a well time intervention, the team behind the British Social Attitudes (BSA) survey has published a fascinating insight into the characteristics of those supporting Nigel Farage’s party.   Key data in it is as follows: Reform voters are generally older Older voters are more likely than younger ones to say they support Reform UK. The BSA study suggests that among those aged 55 and over 27% said they backed Reform, nine points more than the same figure among those aged below 35. The BSA notes that this is “the very opposite of that for the Greens who are much more popular among younger than older people.” The BSA continues by observing that in general, support for Reform UK is up 12 points compared to how it performed in the 2024 General Election among those aged 55 and over, twice as much as the rise in support the party has secured in the same period among those under the age of 35. Impact of education on Reform support Amo...

In a little over a fortnight the UK will see the biggest set of elections this side of the next general election as voters decide who will make up the next Scottish Parliament, the Senedd in Wales and decide the futures for around 5,000 council seats across 136 councils in England. There will also be elections for a number of directly elected mayors. With so many stories likely to come out of them, here’s my attempt as setting a marker for what to look out for. Firstly, in Scotland, does the SNP manage to secure what would be just the second time any single party has achieved an outright majority in the Scottish Parliament? Whilst the most recent More in Common MRP poll for Scotland suggests the party might just be short of an outright majority, it was only a few weeks ago that YouGov’s MRP poll suggested the SNP could be on course for a five seat majority. If the SNP do repeat what Alex Salmond managed when leading the party at the 2011 elections to Holyrood, then expect th...

  Ahead of what could constitute a make or break Budget for the Labour Government, in among analysing the economic numbers, politicians, political hacks and anoraks will be pouring over the public polling to understand the public climate going into, and then out of, the Budget. For those in Labour circles, the latest figures make, frankly, for grim reading. Firstly, Opinium’s latest poll for The Observer finds that when it comes to headline voting intentions, Reform remains well ahead of the other parties on 32%, followed by Labour on 19%, the Conservatives on 17%, the Liberal Democrats on 13% and the Greens on 12%. Opinium continues: “Public dissatisfaction with political leadership remains entrenched: Keir Starmer stays at -45, while Kemi Badenoch sits at -16 (+1). Nigel Farage’s ratings remain steadier, at -10. Rachel Reeves’ approval has ticked up but remains very low at -42. “This is the third poll in a row where Keir Starmer has been on -45, and marks over a 100 day ...

With the Conservative conference well underway in Manchester, those attending would do well to avoid looking at the latest polls if they want to have a half decent gathering.   According to Opinium’s latest data , when it comes to headline voting intentions, just 16% of those questioned said they planned to vote Conservative at the next General Election. That’s behind Reform UK on 34% and Labour on 21%. The data suggests that 37% of those who voted Conservative in 2024 now plan to vote Reform UK. Asked who they felt would make the best Prime Minister just 14% said the Conservative Leader, Kemi Badenoch, behind Sir Keir Starmer on 23%. 51% said neither of them. In a sign of why the parties are adopting the tactics they are, immigration, according to the poll, is the voters single biggest issue, cited by 56% of those questioned. That raises to 72% among those who voted Conservative last year and 86% who voted Reform UK in the General Election. Asked to rate the Conservative...

With Labour’s conference now well underway in Liverpool, the party faces two significant shadows hanging over it, both extraordinary in their own right just 14 months since the party won such a big landslide at the general election. Firstly, there is the threat the party faces from Reform, which dominated much of the Prime Minister’s start of conference interview on the BBC’s Sunday with Laura Kuenssberg programme. According to two recent MRP polls, Reform UK would, if there were an election anytime soon, be in prime position to form the next Government (no that isn’t a typo). YouGov’s poll based on a sample of 13,000 voters gives Reform UK a central forecast of 311 seats in the House of Commons, up by 306 compared to the number they won in 2024. Labour would be on 144 seats, down 267, the Liberal Democrats on 78, up 6 and the Conservatives down 76 seats to 45.   Meanwhile, YouGov forecasts that the SNP would be on 37 seats, up 28 compared to the general election, with the G...

With advance polling having started in Canada’s general election, formally taking place in a week’s time, and following a week in which leaders of the main political parties held their only debates, the Liberal Party led by Mark Carney continues to do well in the polls. According to CBC’s poll of polls , the Liberals are now on 43.3% of the vote with the Conservatives, led by Pierre Poilievre, on 38.4%. The central forecast is for the Liberals to have an outright majority of 195 seats in the Canadian House of Commons with the Conservatives on 122. The Liberals now have an 84% chance of returning to power with an outright majority, and a 15% probability of being the single largest party in a hung parliament. The Conservatives, according to the polls, have just 1% chance of being the biggest single party. In Australia meanwhile, the incumbent Labor Party will be increasingly confident of winning the general election there in just a couple of weeks’ time. According to the latest...

With Canadian’s due to vote in their general election in just two weeks’ time, the polling continues to point to the Liberal Party, led by Mark Carney, being on course to win.  According to CBC’s poll of polls the Liberals now stand on 44.3% of the vote, compared with the Conservatives, led by Pierre Poilievre, on 37.5%. Based on the data, the analysis suggests that the central forecast in terms of number of seats in the Canadian House of Commons is now 198 for the Liberals, clearly past the 172 seats needed for an outright majority.   This would be up from the 160 the party won under Justin Trudeau at the last election in 2021. The central forecast for the Conservatives is for 121 seats, just two more than the party won in 2021. The CBC data suggests that there is now an 87% chance of the Liberals winning a majority, a 12% chance of them being the biggest party in a hung parliament and just 1% chance of the Conservatives being the single largest party in the House of C...

At the end of the second week of campaigning in Canada’s general election, the Liberals under the leadership of Mark Carney, are seeing their poll lead over the Conservatives increase.  According to CBC’s poll of polls the Liberals are averaging 44.2% in the polls, seven points ahead of the Conservatives led by Pierre Poilievre on 37.3%. CBC’s analysis suggests that the Liberals “could win 200 seats or more for the first time in its history on current polling numbers.” This, remember is a party which, at the start of the year, under the leadership of Justin Trudeau, was odds on favourite to be ejected from office after a decade in power. CBC’s analysis suggests that, based on its figures, there is now a 96% probability of the Liberals winning a majority in the Canadian House of Commons, with a 3% chance of it having the most seats in a hung Parliament. It suggests that there is just a 1% chance of the Conservatives winning the most seats in a hung Parliament. Meanwhile, dow...

Just a matter of days after the starting gun was fired for a general election in Canada on 28 th April, Australia’s Prime Minister, Anthony Albanese, confirmed this week that Australians will also go to the polls on 3 rd May. Against this backdrop, new polling indicates that the Australian Labor Party may now be within touching distance of securing a second term in government, despite trailing in the polls just last month. YouGov’s second MRP model for the election suggests that Labor is now on course to secure between 69 and 80 seats in the 150 seat House of Representatives. The Liberal/National coalition is forecast to take 55-68 seats, the Greens 1-3, and Independents 7-12. The central projection, which YouGov describes as “the most likely result”, would put Labor on 75 seats, just one short of an outright majority. The Coalition would be on 60, Independents on 11, Greens on 2, Katter’s Australia Party on 1 and the Centre Alliance on 1. Paul Smith, Director of Public Data...

 The Chancellor, Rachel Reeves, will this week deliver her spring forecast against a backdrop of difficult public finances to say the least, anemic growth at best and concerns about the prospect of more spending cuts by government departments. Against this background, polling by Opinium demonstrates the challenge the Chancellor now faces. In respect of approval ratings, 53% of those questioned disapprove of the job Reeves is doing, with just 16% approving, giving her a net approval rating of -37 which, Opinium notes, makes her “by some margin the least popular cabinet minister tested.” Looking ahead to the next 12 months, 57% said they felt the economy will get worse, with 41% believing their own personal finances will get worse. When it comes to key metrics, Labour leads the Conservatives by 9% when it comes to who the public thinks is best positioned to improve public services, whilst Labour has a 4% lead when it comes to which party is likely to spend government money m...

At the start of January, the then Leader of the Canadian Liberal Party and Prime Minister, Justin Trudeau, announced his decision to stand down.  He did so amidst polls putting his party on an almost certain course to be defeated at the general election needing to be held this year. According to the CBC News poll of poll on the day that Trudeau confirmed his decision to step down on 6 th January,   the Conservatives, led by Pierre Poilievre, led the Liberals by a margin of 24 percentage points. What we have witnessed over the past couple of weeks is nothing short of a political miracle. Against a backdrop of Donald Trump imposing tariffs on goods from Canada and his threat to turn the country into the 51 st state of the USA, the new Liberal Leader and now Prime Minister, Mark Carney, has transformed his party’s fortunes. He has done so by positioning himself and his party as the force best positioned stand up for Canada and its interests against an increasingly bellige...

In the week of Valentines Day, neither Labour, nor the Conservatives, seem to be at the receiving end of voter’s love.   First of all, YouGov this week published polling putting Reform UK on 26% of the vote, its highest score to date. This puts the party just in front of Labour on 25% with the Conservatives on 21%. The detailed tables suggest that 23% of those who voted Conservative at the General Election last year are backing Reform, with 10% of those who voted Labour backing Nigel Farage’s party. Meanwhile, Ipsos Mori has published data suggesting that 48% of Britons feel Keir Stramer is doing a bad job as Prime Minister, with just 23% having a positive opinion of his premiership.   Ipsos also notes that: “Nearly half (48%) of Britons think the Labour government is doing badly at running the country, a figure comparable to ratings of Boris Johnson's government.” The bad news doesn’t stop there for Labour. 56% of those questioned say they are disappointed at the...

Keir Starmer and the Labour Party would be forgiven for feeling slightly lonely.  Not only do they face four years of Donald Trump in the White House, as they look to Germany, Canada and Australia they see the prospect of parties of the centre-left being swept from office. First of all, there’s Germany, which goes to the polls on 23 rd February. YouGov’s first mega MRP poll ahead of the election puts the centre-right CDU/CSU on course to be the single largest party in the Germany Parliament, the Bundestag. Its central estimate, based on the poll is that the CDU/CSU are on course to take 222 out of 630 seats in the Parliament, based on 30% of the vote, up from 24% in the last elections in 2021.   As it notes: “This would likely mean that CDU leader Friedrich Merz will be the next chancellor of Germany.” YouGov goes on to note: “The far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) are also expected to make gains, with the 146 seats and 20% of the vote projected by the YouGov mo...

 Opinium has published its latest poll for The Observer. When it comes to headline voting intentions, whilst 29% of those questioned said they would vote Labour, Reform come second with 24% of those polled saying they would vote for Nigel Farage’s party.  23% opted for the Conservatives, with 10% going for the Liberal Democrats. When it comes to approval ratings for key political leaders, Keir Starmer has a net rating of -33, compared to the Conservative Leader, Kemi Badenoch on -13 and Nigel Farage on -9. The Liberal Democrat Leader, Ed Davey, has a net satisfaction rating of +2. Meanwhile the Chancellor, Rachel Reeves, has a net approval rating of -30 with 49% of those polled being dissatisfied with the way she is doing her job, and just 19% approving. Asked who they felt would make the best Prime Minister, 26% said Keir Starmer compared to 16% opting for Kemi Badenoch. 42% said neither of them. Questioned about the degree to which they approved or not of the way va...

As the political world looks forward to 2025 new polling will be making for sobering reading for Labour, albeit it over four years away from the next election. First of all, More in Common has published its first mega MRP poll since the General Election. When it comes to vote share, the poll finds that if there were an election today, the parties would secure the following, with changes compared to the results of the General Election in brackets: Labour: 25% (down from 33.7%) Conservatives: 26% (up from 23.7%) Reform UK: 21% (up from 14.29%) Liberal Democrats: 14% (up from 12.22%) Green Party: 8% (up from 6.4%) The above would point to the parties securing the following number of seats in the House of Commons: Labour: 228 (-183) Conservatives: 222 (+101) Reform UK: 72 (+ 67) Liberal Democrats: 58 (-14) SNP: 37 (+28) I ndependent: 8 (+3) Plaid Cymru: 4 (-) Green: 2 (-2) Digging deeper, More in Common suggest that such findings would see 271 seats won wit...

100 days into Keir Starmer’s Labour Government, what do the polls tell us about how he, and his government, is performing?  Helpfully, Ipsos Mori has just the answers, in the form of its latest Political Pulse report. According to the report, the Prime Minister, Keir Starmer now has a net favourability rating of -26, with 26% of those questioned saying they felt favourable towards him (-6 percentage points from September) and 52% are unfavourable (+8). The Chancellor, Rachel Reeves, has a net favourability rating of -30, with 20% feeling favourable towards her (-3) and 50% unfavourable (+6). Overall, Labour now has a net favourability rating of -21, having been +6 just after the general election in July. Over the same period, the Conservative’s net favourability rating has increased from -39 to -28. 58% of those who were questioned said that they felt things in Britain are heading in the wrong direction (+3 points from September). Ipsos Mori notes that this is 9 percenta...

As the contest to replace Rishi Sunak as Leader of the Conservative Party gets underway, the candidates for the job would do worse than assess the findings of an Ipsos poll this week. Those questioned were asked which were the most important reasons why the Conservatives lost the general election. Top of the list was the 51% who cited poor delivery on the NHS, followed by 50% saying too many scandals involving the Conservative Party, 46% saying the party was not trustworthy and the same proportion saying the party was out of touch with what ordinary people wanted. 44% said they felt the party was “incompetent” with 43% citing poor delivering in helping to tackle the cost-of-living crisis, the same proportion who cited generally the fact that the country was just ready for a change in government. 41% said poor delivery on immigration was one of the most important reasons why the Conservatives lost, with the same proportion again citing Liz Truss’s time as Prime Minister. Ipso...

Opinium has published its first polling for The Observer since the General Election. Of note, the Prime Minister, Keir Starmer, is clearly in his honeymoon period, with a net approval rating of +19%. News about the football and the attempted assassination of Donald Trump seems to have captured the public’s interest more than UK politics. According to the poll, 91% of those questioned had heard about the assassination attempt on the former President, with 90% having heard about England loosing to Spain in the Euro 2024 final and 83% having heard about Gareth Southgate standing down as the England team manager. In contrast, 67% said they had heard about Rishi Sunak standing down as the Leader of the Conservative Party, 65% had heard about the King’s Speech setting out the Government’s legislative plans and 55% had heard about Vaughan Gething standing down as First Minister of Wales. In respect of the King’s Speech, Opinium measured the desirability compared to the achievability ...

Speaking at the start of the year the new Prime Minister, Sir Keir Starmer, spoke of a "decade of national renewal" being the "central, defining purpose" of a future Labour government. Fast forward to today, and for those now in Government the question will be whether the election results can give Labour any confidence at the prospect of a decade in power. Some might conclude that it is absurd to be asking this question, given Labour’s 172 seat majority in the Commons. That is just 7 short of the majority New Labour secured in 1997 which ushered in 13 years of Labour rule. However, dig deeper, and the reality is that Labour’s victory is thin. According to the election results Labour won on Thursday having secured around 9.7 million votes, equivalent to 33.7% of the votes cast. To set that into context, according to House of Commons Library data , that compares to the 13.5 million votes (43.2% vote share) Labour got in 1997. What is more, the total number of ...

In the midst of an election campaign, it can be difficult to avoid feeling overwhelmed by the sheer volume of polling data that gets published. So, cutting through the noise, barring some sort of miracle, Keir Starmer and the Labour Party will form the next government. The only question is how big the party’s majority will be. On that we have two mega MRP polls out today which help us to put the state of public opinion into some sort of historical context. More in Common’s poll for The News Agents Podcast puts Labour on 43% of the vote, winning 382 seats (up from 180 compared to 2019) in the House of Commons. Thie would be the most seats the party would have won since the 412 it secured at the 2001 election according to the House of Commons Library .   The Conservatives meanwhile would win 28% of the vote, giving it 180 seats, down 185 compared to 2019, and the fewest seats it would have won since the 166 it bagged at the 2001 election. Overall, More in Common point to a...